There are several factors that come into play here. Firstly your assessment of the button’s raising range and his calling range for your re-raise. For example if you assess that he will raise 50% of hands here as an attempt to steal the blinds but will only call with the top 10% of all hands you have a clear mathematical edge (ignoring the big-blind for now): Over 100 hands it looks like this:
The totals are ((80*6900)+(13*-20000)+(7*22400))/100 = +4488 Chips Per Attempt. As a proportion of your stack that is a huge gain. Restealing In Poker Tournaments - Questioning Assumptions About Opponent Hand RangesWe made some assumptions here, deciding that you have 35% winning chances when called. Of course this is not always the case. In our example we chose 8-9 suited for a good reason… that these cards are less likely to be dominated when called. Think of it this way, a large part of any button calling range is going to be the high unpaired hands such as Ace-King, Ace-Queen or even King-Queen suited. Against these hands we have 2 ‘live’ cards and are only a 55/45 underdog. Compare this to restealing with Ace-Six, now when called we are likely to be dominated and a 70/30 underdog to win the hand. This makes medium-high suited connectors more valuable when called. We also make an assumption that the gap between the button raisers range for betting and for calling your reraise was large. This is opponent dependant, especially in lower level multi-player online tournaments some players are more inclined to call than this. Try to choose aggressive opponents for this move – their raising range will be larger so they are less likely to call when faced with a large bet.
Restealing In Online Poker Tournaments - Factoring In Stack SizesStack sizes also come into play. Make sure that the original raiser is not priced in to call your raise. In the above example if the button only had 10,000 chips then this move would be a no-go. He would need to call 5,500 more to contest a pot of 15,000 chips – getting almost 3/1 pot-odds it would not then be correct for him to fold. The big blind should also be accounted for in our example. The action he sees ahead is a raise and then an all-in. Most people in this situation would only call with the very best hands... but make sure you are aware of their style and stack size. A loose and / or desperate (shorter stacked) big-blind might read your action for a steal and call with less than premium holdings. SNG Planet Rec!! A profitable and effective way to sharpen your tournament skills and practice different styles and moves are the Pokerstars 180 Player SNG tournaments - with a wide range of buy-ins and a lower time committment than large multi-table tournaments, these games feature weak enough opponents that most thinking players should be able to make a profit while they work on their game. You can claim a 100% bonus on your first 3 deposits over 90 days at Pokerstars (up to $600 max in total) by using Marketing Code PSP3108 (when you register) and Bonus Code STARS600 when you deposit - check out Pokerstars.com for yourself now to find out what makes this the world's most popular site by a wide margin!
Related ArticlesImprove Your Continuation Bet Success Rate4 Ways Poker Game Theory Can Improve Your PlayPhil Ivey Tournament Strategy
|