Knowing How Often Opponents Will Call At The Bubble Is Key To Success.
Here We Convert Common Calling Ranges Into Percent Chance Of Being Called
Putting your opponents on accurate calling ranges is a key skill when it comes to SNG bubble play. This article is the first in a series that will look at how to turn your estimate of these ranges into simple probabilities that you can use at the table.
Whether or not you use these in conjunction with a mathematical model such as ICM or just go with your instincts. The chart below will help you assess the percent of times you will be called based on the range of cards your opponent(s) will call you with.
In Texas Holdem there are 1326 distinct combinations of cards that can be dealt before the flop. Out of these there are 6 ways of being dealt any pair and 16 ways of being dealt any of the unpaired combinations your opponent may play (for example Ace-King).
By dividing the total combinations by 1326 we come up with the percentage chance of your opponent having a hand they will call with on any one occasion. Of course the chance of any particular holding is also influenced by the cards you hold – look out for future articles here at SNG Planet where this will be considered.
So, below is the chart – Percentage Chance Of Being Called At The Bubble Based On Opponent Calling Ranges (1 Opponent Version)
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Chance Of Being Called At The Bubble
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| Opponent Type | Calling Range | Hand Combinations | % Probability Of Call | |
| Super-Tight | AA, KK, AK | 28 | 2.11% | |
| Very Tight | AA-JJ, AK, AQ | 56 | 4.42% | |
| Tight | AA-TT, AK, AQ, KQ | 78 | 5.88% | |
| Fairly Tight | AA-88, AK-AJ, KQ | 106 | 7.99% | |
| Medium | AA-66, AK-A9, QJ+ | 182 | 13.70% | |
| Fairly Loose | AA-44, AK-A6, Q10+ | 270 | 20.03% | |
| Loose | AA-22, AK-A2, J10+ | 362 | 27.30% | |
| Very Loose | AA-22, AK-A2, 910+ | 426 | 32.10% | |
| Super Loose | AA-22, Ak-A2, 78+ | 630 | 47.50% | |
This chart covers just one opponent and since the probabilities of being called by 2 or more opponents are not as easy as just adding the percentages - we need to look at this scenario in more detail. Look out for this important aspect of SNG poker tournament bubble play in a new article soon.
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