Sit N Go Strategy - ‘Set Mining’ The Right Way And The Wrong Way
Implied Odds Mean That Hitting Trips Can Be Profitable In Poker.
This Article Looks At Special Concerns For Set Mining In SNGs!
Playing small pairs before the flop in the hope of hitting a concealed set can be a profitable play in any form of poker. In SNGs there are issues which mean that this play can easily become a costly error. This article looks at the concerns and strategy concepts involved in ‘Set Mining’ in Sit N Go Tournaments. We highlight the right and the wrong ways to go about trying to spike a set!
Implied Odds concepts are at the heart of playing small pairs. This article will first look at this area and suggest how your implied odds may not be as high as you think. The main set mining errors are positional ones – this is the next part of the article, covering the important concepts of both absolute and relative position. Finally we will tie in the tendencies of your opponents (and indeed the whole table) to the subject of set-mining in Sit N Go poker games.
The chances of hitting trips on the flop when you hold a pair are around 8-to-1 against. That is, for every 9 flops you see, on average one will contain the 3rd card you need to hit your set. Your implied odds – that is the chance of getting paid off with a big pot those times you do spike a set suggest that it would be profitable to play small pairs every time you have the opportunity to make more than 8 times your initial (pre-flop) investment.
Yet this does not factor in some important factors… On some occasions you make your set your opponent(s) will miss the flop and fold. Other times you may get your money into the pot but end up losing to a straight, flush or even a higher set. Maybe the big stack will fold and you will get all-in with a smaller stack – not a big enough reward to justify your investment before the flop.
These factors mean that you actually need more than 8-to-1 odds pre-flop to make playing small pairs for set value profitable. A suggested ‘margin’ to take these into account may be to ensure you have 12-to-1 or more. This should only include odds against a single opponent. Though is occasionally happens that you will get all-in with 2 players this is rare enough to discount from everyday calculations.
Position at the table is the most important factor after implied odds when it comes to successful set mining: below are 2 examples of where position causes potential problems:
Example 1 – 1st Hand of SNG – Stacks 1500 Blinds 30/15
UTG – Raises 3 times BB to 90
You – Holding 55 – Call
Next Player –
The problem here is that you have 7 or 8 players (depending on the site) yet to act. The potential implied odds may have been there, but the risk here is that someone will re-raise and force you to fold – or even worse there will be small raises ahead which force you to call (due to the pot-odds), committing more of your stack than you anticipated – and importantly more than is profitable with a small pair.
Example 2 – 1st Hand of SNG – Stacks 1500 Blinds 30/15
UTG - Limps
Next Player - Folds
Next Player - Limps
Next Player - Raises to 90
Next Player - Folds
Next Player - Folds
Button - Holding 44 - Call 90
Small Blind -
Big Blind -
In this example you have position, a great advantage in any poker game. But yet again your call does not guarantee that you will get to see a flop for your 90 chip investment. What is more, your relative position is bad. Assuming the ideal scenario of the limpers calling and hitting a 4 on the flop does occur it will be more difficult than usual to get ‘paid off here’.
The reason is that you are sandwiched between the raiser and the 2 other players in the pot after the flop. Assuming the early position players check and the mid-position player continuation bets you will find it difficult to disguise the strength of your hand whatever you do. Flat calling looks very strong, losing anyone in the pot without a monster holding on the turn. A raise here may well win the pot immediately – which would make playing the hand unprofitable based on the pre-flop odds!
There are opportunities to play sets after a raise pre-flop, the key question to ask yourself is whether you close the betting. The fewer players still to act, or with the potential to re-raise if the betting has been re-opened, the better. An ideal situation might be if an early position player opened the betting and there were several callers before you acted from the big blind. Here you are closing the betting (your call guarantees seeing the flop) and will have great position relative to the original raiser after the flop. If you hit a set and the early position player continuation bets you may see calls from the other players in the hand before the action gets back to you. This will enable you to build a large pot justifying your initial investment.
Finally, if any of the player’s tendencies are known to you this can be taken into account when deciding whether to play a small pair for set value in poker. For example, if you know that the pre-flop raiser is aggressive and will not give up a pot easily after the flop then your implied-odds go up. If that same aggressive player is yet to act in a raised-pot pre-flop you may choose not to play.
In summary, good position is key to set mining in SNG strategy. Not only absolute position at the table but position relative to the pre-flop raiser will allow you to get the most out of your hands when you do hit a set. A realistic view of implied odds and taking into account your opponent’s tendencies will help you get the best profits from this strategy.
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