Calculates the EV of Buying In To Steps 3+, Could This Be A Profitable Steps Sit N Go Strategy?
This is the 3rd article in a series of 5 looking at Party Poker Steps Sit N Go Strategy. Party Poker is not available to US players – we direct you instead to our ‘Create Your Own Steps at Full Tilt Poker’ article or our look at the Best US Friendly Poker Sites. Here we will look at whether it is profitable for an experienced SNG player to buy-in to the Party Steps ladder half way up. In case you missed the first 2 articles in this series on steps here are the links:
Value Of Steps SNG Tournaments - Previous Party Poker Steps Articles
Party Poker Steps 1 Sit N Go Strategy Part #1: Looked at the basic strategy , opponents and steps payout structure.
Party Poker Steps 2 Sit N Go Strategy Part #2: Covered Bubble Play and ICM for the lower level steps (Party Poker Step 1, 2)
And Now Followed By:
Party Poker Steps 4 Sit N Go Strategy Part #4: ICM Play Adjustments For Step 6 – How To Adjust Your Sit N Go Strategy For Party Poker Step 6 Tournaments.
Step 6 has a first prize of a huge $2000 – the question for this article is whether your potential prize pool equity make it worthwhile buying in to steps 3, 4 or 5 in order to have a shot at reaching step 6 without the time and effort to beat the ‘minefield’ of the lowest level steps.
There are 2 main factors to consider:
- The potential edge compared to the opposition (expectation of finishing in place X for any particular game)
- Your hourly rate in 'normal' Sit N Goes when compared to the time taken to get to Step 6.
We will begin with Step-3. This is a $30 buy-in and payouts are in the following format. 1st to 3rd place, entry to Step 4 ($70), 4th place, try again step 3 ($30), 5th to 7th place down to Step 2 ($10).
We will take a scenario of winning Sit N Go Player at the $30 level - with a decent 15% ROI – this player understands the payout structure will adapt early game play to avoid busting out in any of the 3 unpaid places... what could we calculate this players average expectation for the $30 investment to be?
Firstly the ideal scenario – The Route Straight To Step 6.
- Step 3, 1-2-3 move up to step 4... Approximate Places Here = 40%
- Step 4, 1-2-3 move up to step 5... Approximate Places Again 40% - Total now = 40% of 40% or 16%
- Step 5, 1 and 2 move to step 6.... 30% seems high but certainly possible - 30% of 16% = 4.8%
The 'try again' and 'step down' finishes are not yet included in the calculation... if getting straight to Step 6 with a $30 investment were possible 5% of the time then we are actually showing a $5 loss compared to buying in directly (5% of $500 = $25!).
Next we must look at the (more complex) task of accounting for the equity of the 'try again / step down' instances. The ideal here is that you hit the 4th (3rd in Step 5) ‘Try Again’ Places. Where you move down a level we calculate using the same numbers as for the previous levels – for the move down to Step 2 using 30% since only 2 places move back to Step 3.
The conclusion is that adding all of the try again slots together we increase our chances for a single Step 3 entry to 14.7%. Your equity as a proportion of your entry fee is (14.7/500) = $73.50 (assuming you are a winning SNG player and adjust your strategy to avoid those early place bust-outs)
How often can we expect to cash in Party Poker Step 6?
Equity in the prize pool is purely theoretical at this point – the real question is whether your edge still exists at Step 6 and how often, on average, you would expect to cash. ‘ICM For Steps SNGs ’ will follow in a later article here at Sit and Go Planet.
Factoring In Your Hourly Rate
Before you all rush off to join the Party Poker Steps Sit N Goes we have one more task. We already stated that these calculations are for a winning SNG player. Well if our player is already profitable would it actually be a better use of time to keep playing those regular games and grind out a profit?
We will use the estimate of 4 houcted profit over 4 hours of play with this figure. This is very much based on how many tables are played, whether they are turbo or standard and also wrs ‘work’ to turn $30 into $73.50 in equity. At 15% profit in the $30 Standard SNGs you would need to combine your expehether you choose to multi-table the party poker steps Sit N Goes. With such a wide individual differences we’ll refer you to our comprehensive list of bankroll management SNG articles in our Sit N Go Strategy section for this.
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